In the U.K. in a recent year, potentially dangerous
commercial aircraft incidents (e.g., near collisions) averaged 1.2 per 100,000
flying hours. Let X be the number of incidents in a 100,000-hour period. (a)
Justify the use of the Poisson model. (b) What is the probability of at least
one incident? (c) More than three incidents? (d) Construct the probability
distribution (Excel or Appendix B) and make a graph of its PDF. (Data are from
Aviation Week and Space Technology 151, no. 13 [September 27, 1999], p. 17.)
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