(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b)
Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be
helpful? Explain. (d) Make a similar graph for 19932008 only. Would a fitted
trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2009? (e) Fit a trend model of your
choice to the 19932008 data. (f) Make a forecast for 2009, using either a
fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. (g) Might it be best to ignore
earlier years in this data set?
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